FOREX-Evergrande nervousness drives down FX risk, dollar gains on security supply


By Ritvik Carvalho

LONDON, September 20 (Reuters)The offshore Chinese yuan slipped to a three-week low on Monday, dragging other risky currencies and commodities down as concerns over the creditworthiness of property developer Evergrande spooked financial markets, while the dollar refuge increased

It was not until Friday that the yuan hit its highest level in three months at 6.4297 per dollar. The currency’s sharp decline on Monday follows warnings from Chinese regulators that Evergrande’s insolvency could trigger greater risks in the country’s financial system if it is not stabilized.

Evergrande has worked hard to raise funds to pay its many lenders, suppliers and investors. A deadline for the company to pay interest to creditors is looming this week.

The yuan’s fall to 6.4698 yuan per dollar – its lowest since August 31 – also weighed on the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Norwegian krone, all of which hit near lows. since three weeks ago. FRX /

The Japanese yen strengthened 0.2% to 109.72 yen to the dollar, although that was not enough to prevent the dollar index from benefiting from a safety offer.

The British pound, which also correlates with broader risk sentiment, fell 0.5% to a four-week low at $ 1.3662. GBP = D3GBP /

Against a basket of peers, the greenback rose nearly 0.2% on the day and to its four-week high = USD. Across the Atlantic, the euro was down 0.15% on the day to $ 1.1707 by 10:41 GMT.

“The forex markets start the week on a nervous basis, where the biggest threats are faced with the struggles of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande and the Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday,” said Francesco Pesole, G10 strategist. FX at ING.

“Today also sees a close Canadian election, where failure to get a clear result may not help an already under pressure CAD as the commodities complex feels the pressure.”

The Canadian dollar, also a commodity currency that correlates with risk sentiment, hit its lowest level in four weeks at C $ 1.2815 per dollar.

Polls for Monday’s national election in Canada indicate an advantage for incumbent Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but a likelihood that he will remain the leader of a minority government.


Looking forward to this week, as many as a dozen central banks are holding meetings, but traders are mostly focused on the Fed, where expectations of a bearish signal are keeping the dollar’s supply going.

The US central bank concludes a two-day meeting on Wednesday and the consensus is that it will stick to big plans for cuts this year, but will not provide details or a timeline for at least a month.

However, creeping US yields – which, at 10 years, rose for a fourth straight week last week US10YT = RR – point to the risks of a Hawkish surprise or a shift in projections to show interest increases from 2022.

“We suspect that the Fed may be slightly hawkish in the sense that… (it) is likely to increase its ‘points’, signaling a rate hike next year and for PMIs to continue declining a bit. this is the case, the euro / dollar will likely end the week lower too, “said Mikael Olai Milhøj, chief analyst at Danske Bank.

Among other major central banks, the Bank of England is expected to leave policy parameters unchanged, but traders see potential for gains in the pound if the bank adopts a hawkish tone or if several members call for a reduction in purchases of active.

No decidedly accommodative Bank of Japan policy changes are expected on Wednesday, but a day later, Norges Bank is expected to become the first central bank in the G10 to hike rates.

“The phasing out of central banks around the world from their emergency stimulus measures is likely exacerbating China’s risk-taking transactions,” said Raffi Boyadjian, senior investment analyst at online broker XM.

Cryptocurrencies fell, bitcoin down more than 5% to $ 44,587 and ether down 5.6% to $ 3,139. BTC = BTSP

Global exchange rates

(Reporting by Ritvik Carvalho Editing by Gareth Jones and Pravin Char)

(([email protected]; +44 2075429406; Reuters messaging: [email protected]; Twitter @ritvikcarvalho))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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