USD / TRY Forecast Before Turkish Retail Sales

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The USD / TRY is on a consolidation pattern ahead of Turkish retail sales. Investors will be keen to know if the published figures will be higher than the previous 4.6% YoY and 3.4% MoM. The data comes days after the CBRT interest rate decision. The central bank left the one-week repo rate unchanged at 19%. Analysts expect the bank to cut rates in Q3’21.

Meanwhile, the country’s consumer price index (CPI) rose 1.68% in April. The figure was above 1.08% in March, but below the expected 1.80%. The producer price index (PPI) also increased by 4.34% MoM against 4.13% previously.

USD / TRY will also react to US JOLT job posting data. Analysts are expecting a reading of 7.500 million from 7.367 million in February.

USDTRY Technical Outlook

USD / TRY consolidates after rising from Monday’s intraday low of 8.2306. At the time of writing, it was up 0.07% to 8.2794. In the past week, the formation of a head-to-shoulder pattern signaled a potential decline. The pair fell to the week low of 8.2247.

The ascending trendline, which is highlighted in black, is a sign that the USD / TRY is rebounding. On a two hour chart, it is trading slightly above the two and four week exponential moving averages. The currency pair will see its price rise as long as it stays above the trendline.

I expect it to continue trading sideways ahead of Turkish retail sales. The data may push the price to 8.2500. However, I expect it to continue to rebound to 8.3380. A move above that will place the next target at 8.3714.

This thesis will be invalidated by a shift below the ascending trend line. If this happens, the levels to watch will be 8.2000 and 8.1500.

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USD / TRY Chart

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